There’s a version of this situation that plays out every summer across central Maryland. An air conditioner that’s been struggling for a season or two finally gives out on the hottest week of July. A water heater that’s been making noise for months springs a leak on a Saturday morning. The homeowner calls for service, gets a replacement quote, and discovers that the number is significantly higher than what they would have paid a year or two ago — and they have no choice but to say yes, because they need hot water and they need cool air.
That scenario is going to be more expensive this summer than it’s ever been. And the homeowners who understand why — and act before something breaks — will have meaningfully more options and spend meaningfully less money than those who don’t.
This post explains exactly what’s driving equipment costs up right now, what it means for AC systems and water heaters specifically, and what central Maryland homeowners can do about it before summer arrives in full.
Why Equipment Costs Are Higher in 2026 Than They Were Two Years Ago
The price increases hitting HVAC and plumbing equipment in 2026 aren’t coming from a single cause. They’re the result of several distinct pressures hitting at the same time — and understanding each one helps explain why the increases are real, why they’re not temporary, and why waiting is the wrong strategy.
Tariffs on Raw Materials and Imported Components
A 50% Section 232 tariff on imported steel and aluminum is currently in effect, and these materials are embedded in nearly everything mechanical — HVAC ductwork, unit housings, and component frames. But the copper story is the one that hits homeowners hardest. Design and Biz
Copper prices have surged over 30% year over year, and a 50% tariff on imported copper products — including pipes, wires, and fittings — took effect in August 2025. Copper is the backbone of both HVAC systems and water heater installations. It’s in the refrigerant lines, the wiring, the fittings, and many of the components that connect your equipment to your home. When copper costs jump, everything that uses copper costs more — and that increase gets passed directly to the homeowner. Design and Biz
Prices for HVAC, plumbing, and water heating equipment are expected to continue rising, with new HVAC systems potentially costing 5–20% more than they did before the current tariff structure took effect. The tariffs affect not only the prices of entire new systems, but parts replacements as well — meaning that even a capacitor swap or control board replacement costs more than it did before. John Henry’s
Manufacturer Price Increases Are Already Announced and Active
This isn’t speculation about future increases. The increases are already in the market and on the books.
The HVAC industry has seen widespread price increases in 2026, with major manufacturers announcing adjustments to equipment, parts, and refrigerant pricing, driven by a combination of tariff pressures, refrigerant transition costs, inflation, and supply chain disruption. Trane Technologies announced price adjustments of up to 5% on many residential HVAC products effective January 1, 2026. Lennox pushed increases of up to 10%. Carrier has signaled further adjustments tied to ongoing copper, steel, and aluminum cost pressures. Lennox Commercial has communicated a price increase of up to 8% effective May 18, 2026, on commercial equipment, parts, and accessories, tied to Section 232 tariff changes and broader supply chain cost increases — and additional increases may continue as costs move through the market. Paschal Air, Plumbing & Electric + 2
These are announced, dated, specific increases — not projections. The equipment that costs X today was priced lower six months ago, and the trend is not reversing.
The Federal Tax Credits Are Gone
This one gets overlooked in the tariff conversation, but it compounds the problem significantly for homeowners considering efficiency upgrades.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July 2025, terminated Sections 25C and 25D of the tax code effective December 31, 2025. Homeowners lost the up-to-$2,000 annual credit for qualifying heat pumps and air conditioners. No federal replacement credit has been introduced. If you were planning to upgrade to a high-efficiency heat pump system and counting on that credit to offset a portion of the cost, that offset is no longer available. You’re now paying the full unsubsidized price — on top of equipment that costs more than it did when those credits existed. Paschal Air, Plumbing & Electric
The Refrigerant Transition
There’s one more cost driver that rarely makes the news but adds real dollars to every new HVAC installation. The industry completed its transition away from R-410A refrigerant to newer low-global-warming-potential alternatives — primarily R-454B and R-32 — in 2025. The refrigerant transition required full equipment redesigns, and new refrigerant costs have risen over 40%, with shortages already affecting pricing at the distribution level. Every new air conditioner or heat pump installed in 2026 uses these newer refrigerants, and that cost is baked into the equipment price before anyone picks up a wrench. Endless Energy
What This Means for Your AC System Specifically
Central Maryland summers are not forgiving. Temperatures climb into the 90s in July and August, humidity compounds the heat index significantly, and an air conditioner that can’t keep up stops being an inconvenience and becomes a health concern — particularly for older family members and young children.
What used to be a $6,000 to $8,000 AC replacement now runs $12,000 to $15,000 or higher, representing prices that have nearly doubled since 2019. Some contractors are already reporting 22% price increases from their distributors on top of where prices were a year ago. HVAC Know It All
That number is jarring, but it reflects real costs — not contractor markup. The equipment costs more to manufacture, costs more to ship (diesel surcharges have hit multi-year highs in 2026), and requires more technically certified labor to install than it did five years ago.
The critical question for every central Maryland homeowner right now is: how old is your AC system, and what condition is it actually in?
A system that’s 10 to 12 years old and has been well-maintained may have several good years left. A system that’s 14 or 15 years old, has had recurring service calls over the past two summers, or is struggling to maintain temperature during the hottest days of the year is a system that’s going to fail — the question is only when. Replacing it now, on your timeline, at current prices, with financing options available, is a fundamentally different situation than replacing it in August when it fails on a 95-degree day and you’re calling around for emergency service.
Signs your AC system deserves a professional assessment before summer:
- It’s more than 12 years old
- You’ve had two or more service calls in the past two seasons
- It runs constantly but struggles to reach your thermostat setpoint on hot days
- Your energy bills have been creeping up without a clear explanation
- You hear rattling, grinding, or loud cycling noises during operation
- It’s using R-22 refrigerant (which is no longer manufactured and has become extremely expensive to source)
What This Means for Your Water Heater
Water heaters don’t announce their failure in advance. They rumble, they produce inconsistent hot water, they take longer to recover between uses — and then one day they don’t work, or they leak, or both.
Most homeowners spend $1,900 to $9,000 to replace a water heater in 2026, depending on the type of system and installation complexity. Traditional tank heaters are generally on the lower end, while tankless models cost more due to higher equipment prices and potential gas, venting, or electrical upgrades required during installation. Homebuddy
The tariff impact on water heaters is real and direct. Water heaters are made primarily from steel and copper — both heavily tariffed materials. Water heating equipment from Vietnam, which carries a 46% tariff, and from China and Taiwan, which face significant tariffs as well, represent a large portion of the components used even in domestically assembled units. Those costs are passed through to the consumer.
For homeowners who face an unplanned replacement, the full tariff-driven cost increase arrives with no buffer — the bill reflects local labor, base equipment costs, and tariff-driven increases that have been layered on since spring 2025. OnPattison
Signs your water heater deserves attention before it forces your hand:
- It’s more than 10 years old (the average lifespan is 8–12 years for tank units)
- You hear rumbling or popping sounds during heating cycles — a sign of sediment buildup
- You’re noticing rusty or discolored hot water
- Hot water runs out faster than it used to
- You see moisture, rust staining, or any corrosion around the base of the unit
- Your energy bills have increased without a corresponding change in usage
If your water heater is showing any of these signs, it’s already working harder than it should. Having it evaluated now — and replacing it on a planned timeline if appropriate — is significantly less stressful and often less expensive than an emergency replacement.
The Right Strategy for Central Maryland Homeowners Right Now
Given where prices are and where they’re heading, there are three practical things homeowners in the area should be doing this month.
1. Get Your Equipment Assessed Before Summer Demand Peaks
HVAC and plumbing companies in central Maryland are busy from June through August. Installation lead times extend, scheduling gets tighter, and the ability to carefully evaluate options goes out the window when you’re in an emergency situation. May is the window — before the summer rush, while technicians have time to do a thorough evaluation rather than a quick diagnostic, and while you can make a considered decision rather than a reactive one.
A professional assessment tells you the actual condition of your equipment, its remaining useful life, and whether maintenance or replacement is the right call. That information is worth having regardless of what you decide to do with it.
2. Don’t Wait for a Breakdown to Start the Conversation
The right time to make smart decisions about equipment is before the market makes them more expensive. Announced price increases from manufacturers have specific effective dates — waiting past those dates means paying more for the same equipment. SSI Services
The same principle applies to your personal situation. A water heater that’s 13 years old and rumbling is not a question of whether it will fail — it’s a question of when. Replacing it before that failure happens means choosing your timeline, your system type, and your installation schedule. Waiting means none of those choices are yours anymore.
3. Use Financing to Make the Decision on Your Terms
One of the most common reasons homeowners defer necessary replacements is the upfront cost. That’s a reasonable concern — a new AC system or water heater is a significant expense, and the tariff-driven increases of the past year have made it more significant. But Scardina Home Services offers financing through Synchrony, which means you don’t have to absorb the full cost of a planned replacement all at once.
Financing a replacement you’ve planned for and scheduled — with a monthly payment that fits your budget — is a fundamentally different financial situation than an emergency replacement on a credit card at the worst possible time. The equipment costs what it costs either way. The question is whether you’re controlling the terms or reacting to a crisis.
Visit scardinahome.com/financing to learn about current financing options, or ask about financing when you call to schedule an assessment.
The Bottom Line for Central Maryland Homeowners
Equipment prices are up. They’re not coming back down to where they were before the current tariff structure took effect — once tariff costs get built into manufacturer pricing structures, retail prices don’t revert automatically when trade policy shifts. The federal tax credits that offset some of those costs are gone. And summer is coming, which means every week that passes is a week closer to peak demand and tighter scheduling. OnPattison
The homeowners who come out ahead this summer are the ones who assess their equipment now, make planned decisions before the rush, and use available financing to manage costs on their terms. The ones who wait are the ones making emergency calls in July.
If your AC or water heater is aging, struggling, or overdue for evaluation, the time to have that conversation is now — not when it fails.
Call Scardina Home Services at 410.782.0937 or request a free estimate online. We serve homeowners throughout Glen Burnie, Severn, Crofton, Gambrills, Odenton, Pasadena, Annapolis, Severna Park, Arnold, and the surrounding communities in Anne Arundel County.
Scardina Home Services | 8082 Veterans Highway, Millersville, MD 21108 | 410.782.0937 | scardinahome.com/financing
Frequently Asked Questions
Are equipment prices really that much higher, or is this just contractor upselling?
It’s a fair question and the honest answer is that the increases are real and documented. Major manufacturers — Trane, Carrier, Lennox, and others — have published specific price adjustment notices with effective dates throughout 2025 and into 2026. Those increases reflect higher costs for steel, aluminum, copper, and electronic components, many of which are subject to significant import tariffs. Your contractor didn’t set those prices. They’re paying more for the equipment at the distributor level and passing that through to the installation quote. The best way to verify is to get a quote today and compare it to one from 18 months ago if you have it — the difference will be visible.
How much more will I actually pay if I wait until my equipment breaks down versus replacing it now?
The gap is harder to pin to a specific dollar figure because it depends on your equipment type, the system size your home requires, and what’s available in inventory when you need it. What’s certain is that emergency replacements carry costs that planned replacements don’t. Emergency service calls typically carry premium scheduling rates. When your AC fails on a 95-degree day in July, your negotiating position is essentially zero — you need it fixed immediately, which limits your ability to compare options or choose a system thoughtfully. Waiting also means that any additional manufacturer price increases announced between now and your failure date will be built into your quote. The difference between a planned replacement in May and an emergency replacement in August isn’t just time — it’s money, stress, and options.
My AC is 10 years old and still working fine. Do I really need to replace it now?
Not necessarily — and we wouldn’t tell you to replace equipment that has useful life remaining. A 10-year-old system that’s been properly maintained, runs efficiently, and hasn’t needed repeated service calls may have several good years ahead of it. What we’d recommend is a professional assessment to understand its actual condition, not its age alone. Age is a proxy for wear, but it’s an imperfect one. What matters is efficiency, refrigerant type, repair history, and how the system is performing under load. If the assessment shows the system is healthy, that’s genuinely good news and you can make an informed decision to keep maintaining it. If it shows the system is struggling, you have the information you need to plan on your own timeline rather than react when it fails.
What about the refrigerant issue — I’ve heard R-22 systems are a problem. What does that mean for me?
If your AC system is old enough to use R-22 refrigerant — sometimes called Freon — this is an important issue. R-22 production was phased out under federal environmental regulations, and the remaining supply is recycled, limited, and expensive. Servicing an R-22 system today often costs significantly more than it would have just a few years ago, and the cost will only increase as supply tightens further. More importantly, when an R-22 system develops a refrigerant leak, you’re facing a choice between an increasingly expensive recharge or a full system replacement — but at emergency pricing with limited options. If you don’t know what refrigerant your system uses, a technician can identify it in minutes. If you’re on R-22, that’s a conversation worth having now rather than mid-summer.
I’ve been putting off water heater replacement because it still technically works. When is that a mistake?
The challenge with water heaters is that they tend to work until they abruptly don’t — and when they fail, they often fail in a way that causes water damage in addition to the replacement cost. A tank that’s been corroding internally can rupture and release 40 to 80 gallons of water into your basement or utility room before anyone notices. The signs of a water heater approaching end of life — rumbling during heating cycles, rusty water, inconsistent temperature, visible corrosion at the base, or a unit that’s more than 10 years old — are meaningful warning signals, not minor inconveniences to tolerate. “Still technically works” is a lower bar than “functioning reliably and efficiently.” If yours is showing multiple warning signs, a planned replacement on your schedule is a significantly better outcome than an emergency one that also involves water cleanup.
Does Scardina offer financing, and how does that work for a large purchase like an AC or water heater replacement?
Yes. Scardina Home Services offers financing through Synchrony, which is one of the most widely used home improvement financing platforms in the country. Financing allows you to move forward with a planned replacement now — locking in current equipment pricing and scheduling on your timeline — while spreading the cost into manageable monthly payments rather than absorbing it all at once. This is particularly relevant given where equipment prices are right now. The equipment costs what it costs whether you pay upfront or finance it. Financing a replacement you’ve planned for is a fundamentally different situation than putting an emergency replacement on a credit card at the worst possible time. Visit scardinahome.com/financing or ask about financing options when you call us to schedule your assessment.
Will prices come down if tariff policy changes?
This is a reasonable thing to hope for, but the historical pattern doesn’t support waiting on it. Once manufacturers and distributors build higher material costs into their pricing structures, those prices tend not to revert automatically — even when the underlying cost pressure eases. The federal tax credits that previously helped offset some of these costs were eliminated at the end of 2025, and no replacement program has been introduced. Trade policy is also genuinely unpredictable in both directions — tariffs that are reduced in one area can be increased in another. Planning your home’s equipment decisions around the hope that prices will decrease meaningfully before your AC fails in August is a significant gamble with a significant downside.
What’s the first step if I want to get ahead of this?
Call us or request a service estimate online and schedule a professional assessment of your existing equipment. We’ll evaluate the condition of your AC system or water heater, give you an honest picture of its remaining useful life, and walk you through your options — including system types, efficiency levels, and financing. There’s no pressure to make a decision on the spot. The goal of the assessment is to give you the information you need to make a smart, planned decision rather than a reactive one. That conversation costs you nothing, and it’s the only way to know whether you’re in a position to wait or whether acting now is clearly the better financial call.
Ready to get your equipment assessed? Call us at 410.782.0937 or schedule online at scardinahome.com/estimate-service.
